Even as Iran expands attacks across the Persian Gulf, several of the countries directly targeted are still refusing to join the fight against Iran, opting instead for restraint and diplomacy. Gulf governments say their priority is defending their territory while preventing a wider conflict that could destabilize the region and global energy markets.
When asked by Fox News White House senior correspondent Peter Doocy about Iran’s strikes on Gulf states Monday, Donald Trump said experts had not anticipated Tehran would target neighboring countries.
"Nobody. Nobody. The greatest experts — nobody thought they were going to hit," Trump said when Doocy asked about Iranian attacks targeting Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait.
Another factor shaping Gulf restraint is a regional policy of refusing to allow their territory to be used for attacks on Iran. Some U.S. military experts say the Gulf’s hesitation is also tied to long-standing concerns about Washington’s reliability in the region.
Vice Adm. Robert S. Harward, a former deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, told Fox News Digital that inconsistent U.S. policies have eroded trust among Gulf partners. "Our policies in the Middle East have been more cyclical than a revolving door," Harward said. "We have failed to earn the trust and confidence of our Gulf partners over the last decade and a half. And that lack of trust and confidence has only exacerbated the threat from Iran to the region."
The now retired vice admiral said Gulf governments are weighing the risks of escalation carefully. "As these countries consider whether to go on the offensive, they are worried about what happens when we leave," he said. "Admittedly, these countries are challenged to defend themselves against a country of 90 million without us."
Regional analysts say Gulf leaders are concerned that if even one country joins the fighting, the conflict could quickly engulf the region.
Abdullah Aljunaid, a Bahraini analyst, told Fox News Digital that if one member of the Gulf Cooperation Council enters the war, it could drag the entire bloc with it. "If any member of the GCC decided to join this offensive, it would obligate the rest of the GCC countries to join at the same time," Aljunaid said.
The consequences could extend far beyond the battlefield. "You could imagine what the oil prices would be. We are definitely talking about north of $150 per barrel," he claimed.
Aljunaid said Gulf leaders are also wary of open-ended military campaigns in the region. "Past experiences show that every time military action is initiated in the region, it never ends according to what was promised," he said.
Instead, he said Gulf countries are focusing on defensive measures while quietly supporting diplomatic channels, including mediation efforts through Oman.
Lt. Gen. Richard Y. Newton III said Iran made a major strategic mistake by striking Gulf countries. "Iran made a strategic blunder by striking Gulf nations – our allies and friends – with ballistic missiles and drone attacks," Newton told Fox News Digital.
The retired Air Force commander warned that attacks on key infrastructure such as oil fields or desalination plants could push Gulf states toward a more aggressive response.
"I'm inclined to believe there may potentially be one or two nations in the region inclined to join with the U.S. by going offensive against Iran," Newton said. "That is certainly within the realm of possibility in the coming weeks."
Newton added that the long-term objective for the U.S. and its partners should be preventing Iran from threatening regional stability and global shipping routes. "That includes achieving maritime dominance in the Persian Gulf and setting the conditions for safe passage for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz," he said.
For now, however, Gulf leaders appear determined to contain the conflict rather than escalate it, even as Iranian strikes have already reached their territory.
The UAE did not immediately respond to requests for comment.