As global attention remains fixed on tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a petroleum geologist is warning that the more consequential energy story may be unfolding thousands of feet underground — and could continue long after any political agreement ends the fighting.
Art Berman, a petroleum geologist and energy consultant with more than four decades of industry experience, told Fox News Digital that millions of barrels of Persian Gulf oil production remain shut in and warned that restoring those wells is far more complicated than simply reopening the strategic waterway.
"This is potentially a kind of a world-changing event, even if we resolve the political issues," Berman said.
"The bigger story and the more important one long term is that 8 million barrels of Persian Gulf production is currently shut in and world production is down about 10 million barrels a day," Berman explained.
"We can move tankers around and we can obsess about, you know, are there 4 million barrels getting through or are there 6 million or 9 million or whatever the right number is," he added. "But eventually, those tankers have to be filled with oil."
A White House official, speaking on background, pointed to the sharp decline in oil prices following the signing of the MOU and said the Strait of Hormuz is open, with the U.S. naval blockade in full effect.
Berman's estimate of Gulf shut-ins is broadly consistent with the latest assessment from the International Energy Agency. The Hormuz disruptions had already pushed international buyers toward alternative sources of petroleum products, contributing to higher U.S. refinery margins, production and exports.
Whether that recovery proceeds as EIA expects or encounters the technical obstacles Berman warns about could determine how long the economic consequences of the conflict linger after the shooting stops.
For Berman, the question is no longer simply when tankers return to Hormuz. It is whether the global energy system that emerges afterward will ever operate quite the way it did before.
The White House pushed back on concerns that the disruption represents a lasting threat to U.S. energy security, pointing to record American production and blaming Iran for instability in the critical shipping corridor.
"Thanks to President Trump, the United States is now the world’s number-one producer and exporter of oil and gas. Record oil and gas production strengthens our energy independence and national security," White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told Fox News Digital.
"The Iranian regime’s terrorist actions in the Strait of Hormuz have proven that our allies need to invest in reliable, affordable, and secure energy sources and advance new partnerships with the United States that enhance the world’s energy security," Rogers added.
Fox News Digital has reached out to the White House, U.S. Energy Information Administration and Defense Intelligence Agency for comment.