A dangerous dissident republican group, the New IRA, which is allegedly linked to Iran and Hezbollah, claimed responsibility Tuesday for a car bomb outside a Belfast police station before warning of further attacks, according to reports.
The blast targeted a Police Service of Northern Ireland station in Dunmurry, and police increased patrols after the group threatened to target officers at their homes.
A 66-year-old man was also arrested Tuesday under terrorism laws after the explosion, killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad, raising concerns about possible external support, including weapons and funding.
"The New IRA–Hezbollah link is a useful data point in a much larger pattern: the operationalization of the so-called axis of resistance," former Defense Department intelligence officer China, North Korea and an expanding bench of aligned non-state actors into a working logistical and tradecraft network across the globe," Badger said.
"What we are watching is the maturing of a hybrid warfare model, pioneered and led by Russia and Iran, in which adversaries of the Western-led order increasingly share tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) across geographies and ideologies," said Badger, the co-author of "militant groups that oppose the 1998 Good Friday Agreement and want to end British rule in Northern Ireland and establish a united Ireland.
It has carried out a series of attacks in recent years targeting police and security forces.
"The real challenge for local Irish police and security services is that these groups now compound each other’s learning," Badger added.
"A tactic battle-tested in one theater can be in the hands of a dissident cell in another within months, and Western counter-terror structures simply aren’t wired to track that kind of cross-pollination," he said.
"A Lebanese Shia militia training a hard-left Irish republican faction would have looked exotic 10 years ago.
"Today, it is consistent with a wider pipeline including Russian sabotage cells using local criminal proxies in Europe and Iranian-directed assassination plots on U.K. and U.S. soil.
"The playbook of these actors — proxies, dual-use logistics, weapons-and-finance pipelines, exploitation of grievance movements in the target country — appear to be converging," Badger added.