Iran's decision to hold a July funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is a high-stakes bet that any emerging peace deal with the United States will hold, potentially creating a "target-rich" gathering of Tehran's most isolated leaders, a counterterrorism expert warned Sunday.

The multi-day state funeral, announced by Iranian state media on June 13, is scheduled to begin in Tehran on July 4 and end with Khamenei's burial in the holy city of Mashhad on July 9, Donald Trump announced that a peace deal with Tehran is expected to be signed Sunday.

"The regime could sign a deal that lets it keep its leverage, then bury its leader as the victor who won it," Mohammed said.

"Announcing the funeral Saturday as Pakistan said the final text of a deal was reached and signing is close, is their bet that the ceasefire holds into July."

Following three days of public ceremonies in Tehran, the procession will move to the clerical heartland of Qom on July 7 before concluding in Mashhad on July 9.

Analysts note the dates heavily leverage deep Shia religious iconography, falling directly within the holy mourning month of Muharram.

"This is also a staged passion play, not a schedule because the dates fall within Muharram, the Shia mourning month centered on Imam Hussein's martyrdom at Karbala, and the burial on July 9 is timed to the eve of another Imam's martyrdom," Mohammed said.

"The body goes into the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad — the only one of the 12 Imams buried in Iran, and the holiest site in Iranian Shiism — giving the regime a permanent martyr's shrine and mobilization site for years."

Mohammed noted that scheduling the opening ceremonies on the 250th anniversary of America's Independence Day carries deliberate geopolitical signaling.

"The regime had room to choose which Muharram days and, at a minimum, it's a message they are happy to broadcast; very possibly it's the point — while America marks 250 years, Iran opens the funeral of the leader America killed and calls it the beginning of its victory."

The highly public, multi-city route presents a massive security vulnerability for Iran's new leadership.

Khamenei’s son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has remained entirely in hiding due to targeted security threats and reported injury since the war began.

"By every tradition, the son leads the prayers and stands at the grave; it is the act that consecrates the succession," Mohammed noted.

"But Mojtaba has not appeared in public since the war began, runs the country by courier, and is a designated target — and a funeral is a pre-announced time and place. For a man whose every confirmed sighting is a coordinate, July 9 in Mashhad is the most dangerous appointment of his rule."

"The regime is boxed: It needs the son at the father's grave to crown the dynasty, but putting him there exposes him as never before," Mohammed concluded.

"If he appears, it's his first sighting and a gamble; if he doesn't, the dynasty is consecrated by an absence."