A prolonged delay in the burial of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, signals a deepening crisis inside the Islamic Republic, according to a prominent Iranian strategist.

Dr. Ramesh Sepehrrad’s remarks came as peace talks between the United States and Iran stalled and internal tensions raised questions about the regime’s stability.

Fortieth-day mourning ceremonies for Khamenei began in Iran on April 9, with authorities withholding information about his burial more than 40 days after his killing. A three-day state funeral scheduled for early March 2026 had already been postponed.

"Forty-four days have passed, and the regime does not have the confidence to publicly bury Mojtaba’s dead father," Sepehrrad of the a separate strike affecting his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, who succeeded him.

Mojtaba is said to be still recovering from severe facial and leg injuries, three people close to his inner circle told Pakistan mediated.

"No plan has yet been announced for the time, place, or next round of negotiations," Iranian state news agency Nour reported Saturday, citing the country’s Supreme National Security Council, with no statement from the new Supreme Leader.

"Mojtaba is less the supreme leader in the traditional sense and more the coordinator of a security-led system," Sepehrrad explained before describing him as "more like a security-backed coordinator."

"This regime does not communicate with one unified voice. It communicates by function," Sepehrrad said.

"One channel negotiates, another threatens, another punishes, and another tries to maintain ideological continuity. It is now a mafia," the strategist claimed.

"The key point is not harmony but division of labor. What holds them together is regime survival, not trust."

"What we are seeing now is deeper: a leader who lacks organic authority and therefore governs through the institution that controls force," Sepehrrad said.

On the Iranian side, negotiations, the analyst said, also did involve "diplomats," but a wider circle of security-linked figures shaping Tehran’s posture, reflecting the increasing dominance of hardline institutions.

"This was a brittle coalition of security men," Sepehrrad said, before describing how Mojtaba is "at the top, but is heavily reliant on the Guards, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, SNSC chief Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi, Judiciary chief Mohseni-Ejei, and law enforcement chief Ahmad-Reza Radan."

"Several of the most important surviving figures are not primarily diplomats," Sepehrrad said before suggesting that that should "change how we should read everything coming out of Tehran."

"That is a different system from the one many Western analysts still think they are dealing with," Sepehrrad explained. "Dual track — tactical flexibility in talks and a harsher repression at home."

"While the regime negotiates to buy time, reduce pressure on its forces, and prevent broader external escalation, internally, it is likely to intensify arrests, executions, intimidation, and internet controls now," the strategist warned.

"The regime fears internal unrest more than diplomacy," Sepehrrad said.